Baseball Wiseguys

Friday, November 19, 2004

Washington Crapitals

Nationals It Is
The Expos will officially be unveiled as the Nationals this Monday at Union Station. I guess that means I have to get all of my unfunny combo-names out of my system this weekend. Let's hope the Monday press conference shows us some new logos and uniforms for the Senaxpograytionals.


Crapitals?
Because if Bowden keeps making deals like Guillen for Rivera, that's a pretty fitting nickname. I'd thought any trade for Guillen would be for prospects and Rivera and Guillen would slot into some combo at RF/CF (see below), but I was apparently off the mark.

Maicer Izturis was also sent to the West Coast in this deal. I only started following the Exposinators recently, so I ain't got nothin' to say about this guy.

I don't like this swap one bit, and not just because of my fondness for Rivera from when he was on the Yankees. Rivera will make roughly 1/4 what Guillen will earn this year. He's over two years younger. And both players posted similar OPS last year. Rivera's one of those guys whose growth was stunted by being the last man on the Yankee roster for a while, but I always felt when he got a chance to play full time, he'd be a contributor. Maybe not THE power guy in a lineup, but in terms of cost vs. results, I think he's a better fit than Guillen. Let's not forget the reason Guillen was even available. Rumors have it that there was physical contact in the altercation between Jose and Scioscia, and I'm inclined to believe them, given the severity of the punishment even as the Angels were playoff bound.

Here's Rivera's weighted 2005 projection, but showing only the percentages, leaving out counting stats since he has not put up any real full seasons yet.


OBP SLG OPS
Rivera02 .311 .361 .672
Rivera03 .304 .468 .772
Rivera04 .364 .465 .829
05 PROJ. .335 .449 .784

Again, not great, but the numbers are definitely trending upwards as he got more and more playing time. You could expect him to start to match Guillen's numbers as he reaches his peak age in a year or three. This trade will be a mistake. Given Trader Jim's week, it's a shame that GMs aren't subject to the three strikes and you're out rule...

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